Books Show Mild Conviction on Denver Despite Flat Total Pricing
The Jaguars travel to Mile High where the Broncos are laying three points in what appears to be a market with mixed signals. Jacksonville enters as a road underdog with their season trajectory largely determined, while Denver fights for playoff positioning in a competitive AFC West.
Without historical line movement data, we’re reading the current juice distribution as our primary market signal. The spread shows Denver priced at -115 while Jacksonville sits at -105, indicating books are slightly encouraging action on the road dog. This asymmetric pricing suggests modest book conviction on the Broncos covering.
The total presents a different story entirely. Perfect symmetry at -110/-110 on the 46.5 signals genuine uncertainty from the market makers. Books appear to have no strong directional conviction on pace or scoring, creating what amounts to a coin flip pricing structure.
The moneyline differential tells a more compelling story. Denver’s -172 price creates a significant gap to Jacksonville’s +144, indicating books view this as more than a field goal game in terms of actual win probability. The spread-to-moneyline relationship suggests the market sees Denver as clearly superior but questions their ability to cover a relatively short number.
Team totals provide additional context, with Jacksonville priced at 21.5 and Denver at 24.5. The slight juice favoring the under on Jacksonville (-113 under vs -113 over) hints at skepticism about the visitors’ offensive output in challenging road conditions.
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