Books Slash Total by Four Points While Spread Stays Put — What Do They Know?
The NFC West rivalry heads to Seattle with both teams fighting for playoff positioning. While the spread has remained steady at Seahawks -1.5, the total has crashed from 46.5 to 42.5 — a massive four-point drop that signals books received information the public didn’t.
The spread story is fascinating for its lack of movement. Books opened Seattle -1.5 with juice favoring the Rams (-120/-102), then quickly flattened it to standard -110/-110. This suggests early sharp money came in on Seattle, and books are comfortable holding that number despite any subsequent public action.
But the total movement tells a different story entirely. A four-point drop from 46.5 to 42.5 doesn’t happen by accident. Books either received injury news, weather information, or sharp money that fundamentally changed their scoring expectation. The fact they moved it so aggressively suggests they were wrong initially and had to correct course fast.
The spread pricing at flat -110/-110 indicates books have found their equilibrium and aren’t worried about either side. Compare that to the total, where they’re still slightly favoring the under at -105 versus -115 on the over. Books want under action at these numbers, which means they think this game could go even lower.
The team totals provide another clue. Seattle’s 21.5 and LA’s 20.5 add up to exactly 42 — half a point below the game total. This tight relationship suggests books are confident in their new scoring environment assessment and aren’t leaving much room for error.
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